The March data confirm that, as we were anticipating, the summer is over and now gives way to the beginning of a bleak autumn. The deposit rates offered for deposits over one million dollars showed an increase of 56 basis points over the month, after hitting rock bottom in the first day of the month happened. Similarly, the reference value of the dollar rose 15 cents , which accumulated 26 cents in the first quarter. While in recent days has weakened the dollar’s value growth, analysis of data from the month of March indicates the accuracy of the estimates that 2009 would be a difficult year. However, it is shown that the weakness in demand for pesos and more than likely devaluation of local currency are undermining the financial system’s main function: to reallocate resources to productive sectors in need. On the other hand, the fact that interest rates show a positive trend over all days of the month is nothing more and nothing less than the quiet reflection of a drain in deposits from the private sector. Until March 20, noted a fall in current account deposits of $ 3.775 million, a drop that is notable for its magnitude.
In other words, this means that people preferred to change liquidity in dollars for some other asset of greater value. While the stock recovered $ 4.038 million between 20 and 31 March and left a slightly positive growth expected, seasonally, it is important as the first item that prompted a strong suspicion withdrawal. A very steep decline in transaction deposits and a fall in the stock deposits inevitably means a strong distrust in the value of the peso. With a longer term view, we note that the sharp slowdown in the growth of its various components is the drop in demand for pesos. The economy pesos demanded for transactions is slowly becoming an economy that does not want to see the currency issued by the BCRA, but rather seek refuge in alternative values. However, given a fall in demand for local currency, the theory would indicate that increasing interest rates could stimulate pesos tenure as long as their returns exceed the expected devaluation.
Why interest rates today do not give breaks to which we were accustomed in recent fights against the dollar? The growing stock of money hoarded by banks allows them to respond to withdrawals, although that situation could not be sustained over the medium term. Pressure is so strong that the Central has sold 2.677 million USD in the spot market, although stocks still show no drop-off by giving the other accounts of the Central Bank. People such as Andy Florance would likely agree. Such is the strength of demand for dollars that the BCRA is beating a grim record: the sale of March 3, accounted for 29 consecutive days of sales. To try and relax this tight market Central Bank’s efforts are also reflected in the financial swap USD 10,000 million with the Central Bank of China. It is hoped that this situation deepens, should maintain the uncertainty as to local economic policy.
Two types of Providences managed for the public sector exist: the one that is for the General Regimen of Previdncia Social (RGPS) where is inserted the pertaining people to the private sector and some of the public sector (notadamente used of the state-owned companies and some city halls) and pertaining people to the Proper Regimen of Previdncia Social (RPPS) where is inserted the federal public officers, state and of city halls of bigger cities. In both regimes has presented serious problems in terms atuarial support mainly caused for the disequilibrium between the contributions and the payments of the benefits. Here one presents some referring information to the present situation of the RGPS. This regimen is very including counting on a great contingent very of beneficiaries enclosed for diverse reasons. In June of 2010, they had 23,9 million beneficiaries, of these, 64.8% were pensioners, 27.9% were beneficiary of pensions for death and 7.3% were beneficiary of aids (maternity, illnesses, etc.) and other types. Valley to detach that of the pensioners in RGPS, 33.5% they were for age, 18.4% for time of contribution and 12.9% for invalidity. For the reason of the great majority of the Brazilian population at some moment to need the aid of the Providence for this regimen is that it becomes necessary to verify the degree of covering of the Brazilian population, that is, which the percentage of the Brazilians who will be able to count on the benefits of the Social welfare are for aid, retirement or pension. Others who may share this opinion include ???? ?? ??. In the year of 2009, 59.3% of the people above of ten years were protected either by the General Regimen or for the Proper Regimen of Providence, whereas 40.7% total were forsaken, that is, in case that some problem at some moment of its lives occurred and they could not get remuneration could not appeal to the providence system to get some type of benefit.
Derivatives and leverage with inherent securitizao are part of financial markets, are instruments of risk management, not of speculation. They cannot be fought, but be stimulated with the regulation trying to always keep a balance. The excess of liberality and the lack of control of the FED mainly, with almost all certainty are the lies learned. My illations on the ciclotimia in the economy are there since 2003 when I had the chance to see with a friend of the sector the artificialidade in the prices of the assets. I find that it delayed until excessively the inflection for low, but now I feel myself more comfortable. Still we will have accomplishment of profits and volatileness in the stock markets, a point of contraction and acol and inflation here located, but the life follows and the economy with its natural forces continues inside of the new global environment where the premises of ' ' Blur' ' the technology will be part of our life, likes or not. We go to the thesis of Stan Davis and Christopher Meyer trusting the premise of the speed to fix the recent estragos. The others are part of the context and our allied.
Still I continue affirming that futurologia in the economy does not exist, but a logic yes. When Peter Drucker cunhou the term ' ' The age of the knowledge and the society of informao' ' in the decade of 60, it predicted the future with crises and vices, virtues and qualities. ' ' Blur' ' of 2000 it is showing its beddings, still well that now for better with the recovery and the return of the confidence. The speed of it I ruin done return in the ancestry of virtuous curve, until the next cycle at least. The correction of the route was made and between died and wounded some had been saved, unscrupulous speculators had gained much money, velhinhas and widowers had lost part of its economies, but all learn the lies, also the governments and the monetary and regulating authorities.