Silent Retreats

The March data confirm that, as we were anticipating, the summer is over and now gives way to the beginning of a bleak autumn. The deposit rates offered for deposits over one million dollars showed an increase of 56 basis points over the month, after hitting rock bottom in the first day of the month happened. Similarly, the reference value of the dollar rose 15 cents , which accumulated 26 cents in the first quarter. While in recent days has weakened the dollar’s value growth, analysis of data from the month of March indicates the accuracy of the estimates that 2009 would be a difficult year. However, it is shown that the weakness in demand for pesos and more than likely devaluation of local currency are undermining the financial system’s main function: to reallocate resources to productive sectors in need. On the other hand, the fact that interest rates show a positive trend over all days of the month is nothing more and nothing less than the quiet reflection of a drain in deposits from the private sector. Until March 20, noted a fall in current account deposits of $ 3.775 million, a drop that is notable for its magnitude.

In other words, this means that people preferred to change liquidity in dollars for some other asset of greater value. While the stock recovered $ 4.038 million between 20 and 31 March and left a slightly positive growth expected, seasonally, it is important as the first item that prompted a strong suspicion withdrawal. A very steep decline in transaction deposits and a fall in the stock deposits inevitably means a strong distrust in the value of the peso. With a longer term view, we note that the sharp slowdown in the growth of its various components is the drop in demand for pesos. The economy pesos demanded for transactions is slowly becoming an economy that does not want to see the currency issued by the BCRA, but rather seek refuge in alternative values. However, given a fall in demand for local currency, the theory would indicate that increasing interest rates could stimulate pesos tenure as long as their returns exceed the expected devaluation.

Why interest rates today do not give breaks to which we were accustomed in recent fights against the dollar? The growing stock of money hoarded by banks allows them to respond to withdrawals, although that situation could not be sustained over the medium term. Pressure is so strong that the Central has sold 2.677 million USD in the spot market, although stocks still show no drop-off by giving the other accounts of the Central Bank. People such as Andy Florance would likely agree. Such is the strength of demand for dollars that the BCRA is beating a grim record: the sale of March 3, accounted for 29 consecutive days of sales. To try and relax this tight market Central Bank’s efforts are also reflected in the financial swap USD 10,000 million with the Central Bank of China. It is hoped that this situation deepens, should maintain the uncertainty as to local economic policy.